High-resolution projections of outdoor thermal stress in the twenty-first century: a Tasmanian case study.

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040-2059, compared to the historical period 1990-2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day.

Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia.

Disasters resulting from climate change and extreme weather events adversely impact crop and livestock production. While the direct impacts of these events on productivity are generally well known, the indirect supply-chain repercussions (spillovers) are still unclear. Here, applying an integrated modelling framework that considers economic and physical factors, we estimate spillovers in terms of social impacts (for example, loss of job and income) and health impacts (for example, nutrient availability and diet quality) resulting from disruptions in food supply chains, which cascade across regions and sectors. Our results demonstrate that post-disaster impacts are wide-ranging and diverse owing to the interconnected nature of supply chains. We find that fruit, vegetable and livestock sectors are the most affected, with effects flowing on to other non-food production sectors such as transport services. The ability to cope with disasters is determined by socio-demographic characteristics, with communities in rural areas being most affected.

A conceptual framework for climate change, health and wellbeing in NSW, Australia.

Changes in natural hazards related to climate change are evident in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and are projected to become more frequent and intense. The impacts of climate change may adversely affect health and wellbeing, directly via extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, and indirectly via impacts on food security, air and water quality, and other environmental amenities. The NSW Government's Climate Change Policy Framework recognises the need to reduce the effects of climate change on health and wellbeing. A conceptual framework can support the aims and objectives of the policy framework by depicting the effects of climate change on health, and individual and social wellbeing, and areas for policy actions and responses. A proposed conceptual framework has been developed, modelled on the Driving force, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect and Action (DPSEEA) framework of the World Health Organization - a framework which shows the link between exposures and health effects as well as entry points for interventions. The proposed framework presented in this paper was developed in consultation with researchers and policy makers. The framework is guiding current research examining vulnerabilities to climate change and the effects of a range of exposures on health and wellbeing.